Friday, January 27, 2006

Gates + Davos = Predictions

What the bell did to Pavlov's dog, the World Economic Forum apparently does to Bill Gates: trigger an autonomous reaction. Either that, or it's the Swiss mountain air.

Either way, when Bill goes to Davos, you may hold your breath: come rain, come shine, there will be predictions. But although he's easily the most succesful entrepreneur in the world his track record in making predictions is less than stellar.

His forecast of spam's defeat in two years' time being proven false just four days ago apparently did not deter him from predicting victory over software piracy in China and India. In a speech at the WEF Bill Gates claimed to be optimistic about China and India becoming more licence-friendly, comparing the situation in those countries to Taiwan and Korea a few years ago.

Mr Gates is becoming a bit more careful at the future-betting game, though. This time he predicted victory in ten years, rather than two. Watch this space on January 27th, 2016.

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